The latest on downballot races:

CA-04: Charlie Brown trails by 709 votes.
MD-01: Kratovil up by 2K votes
VA-05: Periello up by 747 votes
WA-08: Burner down by 5300 votes--trails in King County now.
MN-Sen:  Franken down 239 votes

Mixed news, to be sure, but we'll +21 in the House.

A great and wonderful night last night.  A clear victory.  It's going to be an exciting transition, and I can't wait for the inauguration speech.  McCain gave a really classy concession speech.  Can Obama govern?  I hope he avoids the mistakes that Bill Clinton made in 1993--the dithering, the poorly vetted appointments, focusing on the wrong issues, the secrecy over the health care plan.  Getting off to a strong start is important.  This in important opportunity for Democrats--don't blow it.

The only damper on this is the passage of Prop. 8.  It's just not there yet for gay marriage.  It won even in LA County, which
was the killer.  The No side running an awful campaign didn't help.

Downballot was slightly disappointing, though with Merkley winning Oregon (whew!) it's going to be a six seat pickup in the Senate, pending the Minnesota recount.  Twenty seats in House was below almost everyone's estimate, including the MSM.  I was a less optimistic in my prediction, since I saw fewer pickup opportunities than others did.  We both won and lost some close races.  In California, I'm wondering if Prop 8 may have hurt Charlie Brown in CA-04.

With about 32% of the vote in 8 is leading 53-47, and with 30%
of the vote in 4 is losing 52-48.  So there's at least 5% that are voting no on 4 and yes on 8.  4 would have to lose by 10% for 8 to have a chance.

My thoughts:

1.  The country is still a long ways off from accepting gay marriage.  Even in California.  

2.  I think the Yes on 8 campaign had the much better ground game.  The final couple of days, I saw almost all Yes on 8 signholders on major intersections.

3.  Some mistakes were made by the No side.  They allowed themselves to get a late start in fund-raising and advertising.
Also, near the end, there was a bit of Mormon bashing which didn't help.

The other social proposition on the California ballot, Proposition 4, which requires parental notification for a minor's abortion, is leading by just 46-44 in the latest Field poll.  That's a tightening from 49-41 a month ago.

I think Prop 4 will be defeated, but by a closer margin than in 2005 (5.6%) and 2006 (about 7%).  I also think 8 will fail but by only one or two percent (maybe even closer).

In California, there will be a lot of ballots that won't be counted on Election Night and the following morning.  These are late absentee and provisional ballots.  Results don't have to be
certified until December 2, four weeks after the election.

Before you think this is another concern troll, I pulled this
from the 538 comments from an Obama supporter:

"I think Obama has shown a lack of judgment in openly thinking about his cabinet and investing in states like Arizona, when defending Florida, Ohio and especially Pennsylvania would essentially guarantee a win. He has also been way too passive in rebutting McCain over his recent ludicrous allegations of socialism, radicalism, associations with extremists, inexperience and tax increases for the middle class, as well as the good old liberal media bias BS."

With Morning Call tracker (PA) down to 52-44, and McCain apparently winning a "Zogby" day 48-47, I'm wondering again.

It won't be out until tomorrow, but the gay marriage ban is trailing 49% to 44% in the final Field Poll.  So it appears the
massive "mobilization" and spending by the Mormons and the Knights of Columbus has only gotten them so far. (h/t fivethirtyeight.com).  One factor may be Obama's coattails--he's up 22 in this same poll.

But's let's make sure 8 goes down.  Let's keep up the good work and save marriage equality.  Five days left!

So with eight more days polls the trackers are showing a tighter race (sorry, Matt Stoller).  And Zogby is down to 49-45 Obama.
So I think there's a good chance McCain will get the lead at least once by Election Day.

So take the poll.

Another poll came out with Only 1.1% lead for Obama--IBD-TIPP.  The internals are odd, but this is the third poll in three days
showing only a one-point lead.  The AP poll was discussed extensively last night by Jerome, and the Battleground tracker on Tuesday (back to 49-45) make it three days in a row.

Suppose fewer young people vote?  Suppose they're not as Democratic?  Suppose the GOP's 73-hour program still works?
Suppose the partisan ID gap is only 2-3%?  

I know the average is 7.1% now, but I still think McCain is going to close the gap.  That means some McCain leads.  Are you ready for that?